Words denoting prestige and respect gradually lose their original meaning and association in a free society. Commercialization will tap into the prestige of the word, while radicals are always looking for something to rebel against. "Civil Marriage" is one such word. Many want its respect and benefits, but few want to adhere to the rules that made it socially respectful and State supported. [PROTOTYPES - 3 blogs]]
Fallacy: Divorce rate in Massachusetts has dropped substantially since State law there permitted same-sex marriage. So same-sex marriage is good for a State, in part because it decreases the divorce rate.
Advocates of same-sex civil marriage are prompt to make cause & effect deductions from timing coincidences. This is not sound Statistics. The rules of Statistics are set down in logical mathematical theorems, and do not allow making a "connection" without looking at other factors which could have affected the divorce rate in that State. And the State must be a "closed system", in mathematical jargon.
Recently, the U.S. Census Bureau has published more detailed statistics on number of marriages and divorces for States that have passed same-sex civil marriage laws.
As it turns out, divorce has decreased recently in North Eastern States primarily because the number of marriages of young people in those States has also dropped. Another reason is that the younger workers are moving out of the State, looking for work, and they are statistically more likely to divorce than the older generation. Also, States with marriage amendments to their constitution have the fastest growing economies, causing young people to migrate from North Eastern States.
Therefore, these States are not "closed systems", and so a cause & effect relationship between same-sex marriage and less divorce cannot be concluded.
Advocates of same-sex civil marriage are prompt to make cause & effect deductions from timing coincidences. This is not sound Statistics. The rules of Statistics are set down in logical mathematical theorems, and do not allow making a "connection" without looking at other factors which could have affected the divorce rate in that State. And the State must be a "closed system", in mathematical jargon.
ReplyDeleteRecently, the U.S. Census Bureau has published more detailed statistics on number of marriages and divorces for States that have passed same-sex civil marriage laws.
As it turns out, divorce has decreased recently in North Eastern States primarily because the number of marriages of young people in those States has also dropped. Another reason is that the younger workers are moving out of the State, looking for work, and they are statistically more likely to divorce than the older generation. Also, States with marriage amendments to their constitution have the fastest growing economies, causing young people to migrate from North Eastern States.
Therefore, these States are not "closed systems", and so a cause & effect relationship between same-sex marriage and less divorce cannot be concluded.
UNDER CONSTRUCTION:
FURTHER READING: Census Bureau Reveals Detailed Look At Marriage
Later: Caché copy: Dial-Census_Bureau_Reveals_Detailed_Look_At_Marriage.pdf